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Self-replicating manufacturing

How does a falling resale price for the finished fleet change when the shop stops copying?

research/selfrep-resalecurve

A resale price for the finished fleet that falls with market depth m (stylised): with an unsaturated goods market the switch moves from 574 h (linear) to 549 h (m = 1e3) and a single switch matches the DP; with a saturating goods market the DP beats the best switch by up to 14%.

6 tests

What it found

Follow-up to selfrep-terminalmarket: the fleet is sold at the horizon for sm(1 − e−N/m), so the first machine fetches s and the price falls with market depth m (W = 50 h, failure 0, horizon 600 h, all inputs assumed). With an unsaturated goods market a shallower resale market moves the optimal switch from 574 h (linear) to 549 h (m = 103), and a single switch matches the DP. With a saturating goods market (c = 104) the DP policy beats the best single switch by up to 14%. The DP table value is not a certificate (it overstates at 400 grid points); simulated policy values are reported. Stylised and preliminary; both market curves are assumed, not fitted.

A figure from its own output

Figure produced by research/selfrep-resalecurve: market_depth
selfrep-resalecurve/experiments/market_depth.svg, written by the project's own experiment code.

Paper, code and results

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Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.