Does the house-cost lever ranking survive its assumed driver splits?

What it found

A Monte Carlo over house-cost's assumed splits of each construction stage over floor area, footprint and wall area (Dirichlet, concentration 5, 20 and 80; 2,000 draws each). Floor area stays the largest lever in 96–100% of draws. Storeys is the soft claim: one versus three storeys swings the price index 9.0–19.9 points at concentration 20 (baseline 14.0), 5.1–24.1 at 5. The framing-lumber result does not move. Seven of ten levers cannot move under this test by construction. Stylised: tests only the splits, not the lever ranges or the NAHB shares.

A figure from its own output

Paper, code and results

• README and method
• Experiments and results
• Code
• Tests

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Other research topics

Proper scoring & elicitation28Effort & peer prediction9Verification games & slashing19Detection & tolerances14Markets as routers13Prediction-market design9Paying contributors8Decentralised training systems23Digital twins & sim-to-real164LLM chip design loops40Robot manufacturing loops53Ambient AI assistant46Self-replicating manufacturing34Simulation-first design64Engineered clothing45Task-specific AI accelerators40Algorithmic chip-design loops42Open-source purpose-built robots44The software-engineering loop43Adversarial human imitation41Open-source residential construction41Autonomous multi-angle capture34Sensing, imaging and 3D31Energy supply and dense energy storage39Robot societies among people31Agentic co-design of low-cost robots27Laundry-hanging robots25Machine learning on qualitative data23Robots on the building site27Civilizations & group psychology1History & human sciences1

Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.