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Do repeated random fold assignments stabilise validation-based cap selection?

research/ambient-drrepeat

Repeated random fold assignments for cap selection in the ambient-assistant world (follow-up to ambient-drablate): averaging 5 assignments helps the IPS-score selector at ε = 0.02 (3.5 → 5.3 utility/h) and nothing else beyond noise; stylised, simulated only.

8 tests

What it found

A stylised, mixed follow-up to ambient-drablate: averaging the cap-selection score over 5 random fold assignments (instead of one) with an uninformed prior, 20 seeds. At ε = 0.02 it lifts the IPS-score selector from 3.5 to 5.3 utility/h and halves its seed spread; at smaller ε it changes nothing beyond noise. Single-assignment results differ from the earlier project's, showing how much one fold permutation can matter. Every selector stays far below the label-matched control (about 12). Simulated and stylised only.

A figure from its own output

Figure produced by research/ambient-drrepeat: selectors
ambient-drrepeat/experiments/selectors.svg, written by the project's own experiment code.

Paper, code and results

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Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.