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How does the burstiness of an always-on trigger's false-wake counts grow with the counting window when the noise level drifts for hours?

research/ambient-driftwindow

How does the Fano factor of false-wake counts grow with the counting window when the noise level drifts for hours? At 5% persistent drift (about 3 h correlation time) it grows from 1.9 at 100 s to about 150 at 28 h, against a flat 1.9 for independent drift. Stylised; the drift is assumed.

10 tests

What it found

A stylised follow-up to ambient-wakeburst, which drew a fresh noise level per window. With a noise scale that drifts persistently (log-scale AR(1), 5% sd) the Fano factor of false-wake counts rises with the window instead of staying flat: about 1.9 at 100 s for any correlation time, then 14, 110 and 150 at 16, 256 and 1,024 blocks (28 h) for a 2.8 h correlation time, and 620 at 28 h for a 28 h correlation time, while the mean moves only 5%. A Poisson-given-scale (Cox) model, checked against a frame-level simulation (4.7 vs 4.7 and 44 vs 44), and a closed form (mean error 2% on the busy trigger, worst 11%) explain it. The drift is assumed, not measured, and the ‘rare’ trigger is one wake per 500 s, not one a day. Stylised.

A figure from its own output

Figure produced by research/ambient-driftwindow: fano_vs_window
ambient-driftwindow/experiments/fano_vs_window.svg, written by the project's own experiment code.

Paper, code and results

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Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.