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Digital twins & sim-to-real

What does a too-clean digital twin do to a student cloned from a privileged teacher?

research/twin-distillation

Cloning a privileged teacher from a digital twin into a noisy-sensor student: BC gain gP/(P+s) is set by the twin's noise-to-sensor ratio, a too-clean twin (¼ the noise) gives 0.36–1.11 excess cost vs 0.005–0.10, on-policy imitation is within 3.5% of optimal, cancellation with actuator error is accidental, and matching one real scalar by demonstration noise fixes it in two rounds.

9 tests

What it found

A teacher that sees the true state is trained in a twin and cloned into a student that sees only a noisy sensor. Least-squares cloning attenuates the gain to gP/(P+s), where P is the demonstration state variance, so the student depends on the twin only through its process-noise-to-sensor-noise ratio. A twin with a quarter of the real process noise yields a lazy student with excess cost 0.36 (s=0.5) to 1.11 (s=2) against 0.005 to 0.10 from an exact twin, 2.8–3.6× worse than on-policy DAgger in the same twin. On-policy imitation of an exact teacher is within 3.5% of the best memoryless student over 252 cases; cloning can cancel an actuator error, but the cancellation point moves with sensor noise. Injecting demonstration noise in the twin, set from one real scalar (Var z − s), recovers the on-policy gain in two rounds (regret 0.357 → 0.0035 → 0.00003). Stylised: scalar linear–quadratic, no robot data.

A figure from its own output

Figure produced by research/twin-distillation: regret
twin-distillation/experiments/regret.svg, written by the project's own experiment code.

Paper, code and results

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Proper scoring & elicitation28Effort & peer prediction9Verification games & slashing19Detection & tolerances14Markets as routers13Prediction-market design9Paying contributors8Decentralised training systems23Digital twins & sim-to-real164LLM chip design loops40Robot manufacturing loops53Ambient AI assistant46Self-replicating manufacturing34Simulation-first design64Engineered clothing45Task-specific AI accelerators40Algorithmic chip-design loops42Open-source purpose-built robots44The software-engineering loop43Adversarial human imitation41Open-source residential construction41Autonomous multi-angle capture34Sensing, imaging and 3D31Energy supply and dense energy storage39Robot societies among people31Agentic co-design of low-cost robots27Laundry-hanging robots25Machine learning on qualitative data23Robots on the building site27Civilizations & group psychology1History & human sciences1

Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.