What does a too-clean sensor twin do to a mapper's commit error?

What it found

A grid cell committed when log-odds built with a twin's sensor model reach ±A has, under the real sensor, an exact error set by the Lundberg exponent θ* (equal to 1 for a correct twin) with a rigorous optional-stopping sandwich. A twin whose free-space false-hit rate is 0.05 against a real 0.15 turns a 10⁻³ design into 1.45×10⁻² (14.5×, matched by simulation; 260× at 0.30), and an optimistic occupied hit rate (0.8 vs 0.6) gives 26×. Committing at ln(1/ε)/θ* restores the target at 1.4–16× the latency, and the real-data estimate of θ* needs several hundred known-free observations before the tempered mapper stops exceeding target in over a quarter of maps. Stylised: one independent-beam cell.

A figure from its own output

Paper, code and results

• README and method
• White paper
• Experiments and results
• Code
• Tests

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Other research topics

Proper scoring & elicitation28Effort & peer prediction9Verification games & slashing19Detection & tolerances14Markets as routers13Prediction-market design9Paying contributors8Decentralised training systems23Digital twins & sim-to-real164LLM chip design loops40Robot manufacturing loops53Ambient AI assistant46Self-replicating manufacturing34Simulation-first design64Engineered clothing45Task-specific AI accelerators40Algorithmic chip-design loops42Open-source purpose-built robots44The software-engineering loop43Adversarial human imitation41Open-source residential construction41Autonomous multi-angle capture34Sensing, imaging and 3D31Energy supply and dense energy storage39Robot societies among people31Agentic co-design of low-cost robots27Laundry-hanging robots25Machine learning on qualitative data23Robots on the building site27Civilizations & group psychology1History & human sciences1

Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.