How many milestones does an unenforced job need?
research/milestone-schedules
Milestone payments without enforcement: a split pre-payment needs only the pooled relationship value (C/(W_r+W_w) vs P/W_r, C/W_w), and front-loading makes the milestone count logarithmic, ⌈ln(1+(V−C)/W)/ln(V/C)⌉ (17 vs 100 at W=1).
What it found
A requester and an anonymous worker split a job into milestones, each a stage of pre-payment, work and late payment, with a grim trigger that forfeits the remaining surplus and a relationship value W. A milestone is self-enforcing under some pre-payment split iff its cost is at most the pooled continuation value, so pay-after-delivery needs P/Wr equal milestones, pay-before C/Ww, and the best split C/(Wr+Ww) (110, 25 and 20 in the example), whoever holds the value. Because early defection also forfeits the remaining work, the largest milestone shrinks geometrically and the minimum count is ⌈ln(1+(V−C)/W)/ln(V/C)⌉: 17 instead of 100 at C=100, V=120, W=1, with the first milestone 1−(C−W)/V of the job. Cheap re-entry caps W and costs ln(1/e) milestones. Matched on 2000 random instances. Stylised: complete information, pro-rata value.
A figure from its own output
Paper, code and results
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Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.