How many starts does the likelihood-ranked multi-start need, and are grid starts better than random ones?
research/ambient-startcount
How many starts does a likelihood-ranked multi-start need, and are grid starts better than random ones: one start is nearly enough with strong hardness or n = 1000, 4 starts reach the best optimum in most cells, more help only in the weak-hardness and null cells, and policy utility barely moves (stylised)
What it found
Fitting the three-auditor hardness-aware Dawid–Skene model from 1, 2, 4, 8 or 16 nested grid starts versus the same number of random starts, keeping the highest-likelihood fit. When hardness is present and either strong or nWith strong hardness or n = 1000 one start nearly always reaches the best optimum and 4 starts reach it in every such cell;nbsp;=With strong hardness or n = 1000 one start nearly always reaches the best optimum and 4 starts reach it in every such cell;nbsp;1000, one start usually reaches the best optimum (72With strong hardness or n = 1000 one start nearly always reaches the best optimum and 4 starts reach it in every such cell;ndash;100%) and 4 starts reach it in 82With strong hardness or n = 1000 one start nearly always reaches the best optimum and 4 starts reach it in every such cell;ndash;100% of draws; with mild hardness at n = 200 and under the null, more starts keep improving the likelihood (grid hit rate 72% at K = 1 to 97% at K = 16) but mean policy utility moves by at most about 0.0002. Grid versus random is mixed. Stylised: one dependence model, 40 draws per cell, optimum judged against the best of 32 fits.
A figure from its own output
Paper, code and results
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Produced with AI assistance (Claude). Results are from the code in this repository and are simulated or stylised unless the abstract says otherwise; nothing here implies affiliation with or endorsement by any lab, researcher or company cited. MIT licensed.