FOR EBAY RESELLERS
A buyer named a price. Final value fee, the per-order fee, and any promoted or international percent all move with the sale, so a $6 discount never costs only $6. Waiting is list profit times your guessed chance it still sells at list. A miss this cycle leaves the cash sitting in the item.
| Path | Price | If it sells | Expected leftover | vs waiting |
|---|
The offer is in hand. Waiting treats a miss as $0 this cycle. Chance and prices are inputs, not eBay’s Best Offer policy.
Sellers search “should I accept this eBay offer” because the inbox number is not the cash they keep. A $6 cut on a $40 listing is not a $6 cut after fees.
On the defaults — $40 item, $6 shipping, 13.6% + $0.40, $12 cost, $5 outbound, $1 pack, 20% target, $34 offer, 50% chance of list — list leaves $21.34. The offer still leaves $16.16 (40.4% margin), $5.18 less than list. Waiting expects $10.67. The offer keeps $5.49 more. Waiting still ties at about a 75.7% chance of selling at list.
A $16 offer still clears break-even ($0.61) but misses the 20% target. Counter $21.71 to hold it. A $15 offer loses $0.26 after fees — waiting still expects $10.67. Raise the wait chance to 100% and the $34 offer keeps $5.18 less than list.
It does not tell you to accept or decline, and it is not tax or financial advice. Sending a discount to watchers is a seller-initiated offer versus waiting. Auction versus Buy It Now is listing format after sell-through. The main eBay fee calculator still shows completed-sale profit and nearby listing prices.
Accept when the offer’s profit after eBay fees and your cost of goods is higher than list profit times your guessed chance the item still sells at list. On the calculator defaults ($40 item, $6 shipping, 13.6%+$0.40, $12 cost, $5 outbound, $1 pack, 20% target, $34 offer, 50% chance of list) the offer keeps $16.16 and waiting expects $10.67 — $5.49 more. That is arithmetic on your inputs, not advice to accept.
A $16 offer on these defaults still clears break-even ($0.61) but misses a 20% target. Counter $21.71 to hold that target. A $15 offer loses $0.26 after fees. Waiting at 50% still expects $10.67, so a thin offer can pay and still lose to waiting.
No. An incoming Best Offer is the buyer naming a price. A seller-initiated offer is you naming the discount and sending it to watchers. Auction versus Buy It Now is a listing-format choice before anyone watches. The repricing table moves the list price without a typed wait chance.