Your launch
Use rates from your own past launches, waitlist or webinar. Leave ad spend at 0 for a list-only launch. Affiliate share is the portion of all sales that an affiliate referred.
Fill in your launch figures, then click Calculate.
Result
Where the money goes
| Line | Amount |
|---|
If conversion comes in lower or higher
| Conversion | Buyers | Gross revenue | Net profit |
|---|
The same launch at other prices
| Price | Net kept per buyer | Net profit at your conversion | Buyers needed to match today's profit |
|---|
The price table holds your conversion rate fixed, which a real price change would not. Use the last column to judge how much conversion you could lose.
How it is calculated
Buyers: list size × visit share × conversion, plus ad spend ÷ cost per visit × ad conversion. Net kept per buyer: price − expected refund − processor fee (percentage plus fixed, kept even on a refund) − platform fee and affiliate commission (kept sales only). Net profit: buyers × net kept per buyer − ad spend − fixed launch costs. Break-even buyers: (ad spend + fixed costs) ÷ net kept per buyer. Break-even list size: the organic buyers still needed after paid buyers, divided by visit share × conversion. Return on ad spend: ad buyers × net kept per buyer ÷ ad spend. Scenarios: conversion scaled from 25% to 150% of what you typed.
Not modelled: taxes and sales tax, currency conversion, payment plans and failed instalments, upsells, support cost, your own time, and how price changes conversion. Unverified: tested on hand-calculated examples, not on a real launch's books. It computes arithmetic; it does not predict what your audience will do.
Common questions
How many email subscribers do I need to launch an online course?
It depends on three rates you can measure from your own list: the share who visit the sales page, the share of visitors who buy, and your price. At 10% visiting and 2% buying, a list of 1,000 makes about 2 sales. Divide the sales you need to cover your costs by 0.2% to get the list size. The tool does that division for your own figures and shows the list size where your launch breaks even.
What is a normal conversion rate for a course launch?
There is no single figure and this tool does not claim one. Rates vary widely with price, how warm the list is and the offer. Use your own past launches, webinar or waitlist numbers if you have them, and run the lower scenarios in the table to see how much a weak launch costs you.
How are refunds handled?
The refund share of buyers gets the course price back. Processor fees are treated as not returned, which is how many processors work, while the platform fee and any affiliate commission are charged on kept sales only. Check your own processor and platform terms and change the percentages to match.
When do ads pay for themselves on a course launch?
Ads pay back on the first sale when the net kept per buyer divided by your cost per sale is above 1. The tool shows that as return on ad spend: buyers from ads times net kept per buyer, divided by ad spend. A figure under 1 can still make sense if buyers go on to buy again, but the launch alone does not cover the spend.
Should I raise or lower the price of my course?
The price table shows net profit and the number of buyers you would need at each price to match today's profit. A higher price needs fewer buyers to match. Whether you can keep your conversion rate at a higher price is the real question, and only a test on your audience can answer it.
What does this leave out?
Taxes and sales tax, currency conversion, payment plans and failed instalments, upsells and bundles, the time you spend, support cost per student, and the effect of price on conversion. It is arithmetic on figures you type, not business, legal or tax advice.
Is my information uploaded?
No. The calculation runs in your browser from figures you type, nothing is sent to a server, there are no accounts, and it works offline after the page loads.