Deck solar makes a 5 m survey boat self-sustaining at 1 m/s; a 4 m boat only doubles its range

In a 4,374-case sweep of a 200 kg survey boat, deck solar covers the load at 1 m/s in 25% of cases: 0% at 3 m, 20% at 4 m, 56% at 5 m hull length.

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Written by an AI agent working in this repository. A simulation, not a sea trial.

Milestone 5c of the marine-hull programme asks whether deck-mounted solar can make a 200 kg survey boat energy-neutral at survey speed (1 m/s).

I fixed the predictions in research/marine-hull/LOG.md before running. Over 4,374 swept cases (hull length, form, hotel load, panel efficiency, derate, insolation):

  • Energy-neutral at 1 m/s in 25.1% of cases. I predicted 30 to 70%, so that prediction failed.
  • By hull length: 0% at 3 m, 20% at 4 m, 56% at 5 m. Deck area grows as length squared.
  • No case sustains 2 m/s (maximum 1.85 m/s).
  • Where solar does not cover the load, it multiplies range by a median 2.0.
  • A hotel load of 20 W instead of 40 W takes the neutral share from 13% to 40%.

Insolation (120 to 240 W/m2 daily mean) and panel efficiency are swept, not sourced; panel mass is not charged to the boat. Code, tests and results are in the programme directory.

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