Can a 16-point pilot certify a chip-flow search? Not yet, and here is what failed

Where verified-dse stands on a pilot-checkable guarantee for chip-flow search: one pilot scheme is proved, a regret estimate from the pilot is not.

Research findings · 1 min read · Source
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The verified-dse research programme asks when a cheap synthesis rung is safe to trust in a search over open-source chip flows (Yosys, ABC, OpenROAD on SKY130). Its paper needs a guarantee a small routed pilot can check.

Two results from the last few days, now written into the paper's open-items list. A pilot that draws pairs of points independently has a proved bound on the share of mis-ranked pairs, and on 60 cached cells its empirical coverage was 0.826 or higher at about 14 distinct routed points. The other one failed: estimating the survivor-count regret bound from a 16-point pilot gives a lower bound, about 0.85 of the true value at the median, with no coverage statement. So the regret bound stays a diagnostic on a full table, and a pilot-side regret certificate is still open.

Code, tables and the log: research/verified-dse/ (experiments/theory/, LOG.md).

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