Your past periods
Use periods longer than your usual sales cycle, or wins that close after the period they started in will look like luck. At least 6 periods, 60 leads and 10 deals won in total.
Upload or paste your history, enter a target, then click Plan.
Result
Back-test on your recent periods
For each recent period, the tool used only the periods before it and predicted the deals won. "Inside" means the real number fell in its 80% range.
| Period | Leads | Predicted (80% range) | Actual |
|---|
How it is calculated
Model: deals won next period are Binomial(leads, conversion). Conversion is your pooled deals won ÷ leads; its uncertainty comes from 400 seeded bootstrap resamples of whole periods, plus extra period-to-period spread fitted to how much your own results swung (over-dispersion), so a lumpy history gets a wider range. Revenue is wins × your average deal, plus deal-size noise estimated from how far each period's average deal sat from the pooled one. The chance is the share of 1,500 simulated periods at or above your target; the lead counts are the smallest leads that reach 50%, 80% or 90% of simulated periods. Everything is seeded, so the same history always gives the same answer.
Not modelled: sales-cycle lag, seasonality, lead source or quality, capacity limits, price changes and churn. Unverified: checked against simulated histories with known conversion in unit tests and by the back-test on your own data, not against a published dataset. Treat the 80% lead count as a planning number to test against next period, not a promise.
Common questions
How many leads do I need to hit my revenue target?
It depends on your own conversion rate and average deal, and on how much your results swing from month to month. This tool reads your past periods (leads, deals won, revenue won), simulates the next period thousands of times, and shows the chance of reaching your target at a given lead count and how many leads give you a 50%, 80% or 90% chance. The last number is the planning number: a 50% plan misses half the time.
What is a good lead-to-customer conversion rate?
Published averages differ by industry and by what counts as a lead, so they say little about you. The useful number is your own: deals won divided by leads over many periods, shown here with a range. Compare it with your recent periods to see whether it is drifting.
Why not just divide my target by my average deal and my conversion rate?
That gives the 50% answer: half the time you land below it. Wins arrive in whole deals and conversion swings between periods, so the lead count that reaches a target 8 times out of 10 is noticeably higher. The tool shows both so you can see the gap.
How many past periods do I need?
At least 6 weeks or months, 60 leads and 10 deals won in total. Fewer cannot show how much your results swing, so the tool refuses rather than guessing. More history gives a narrower range; 9 or more periods also lets it back-test itself.
What is the back-test?
For each of your last few periods, the tool pretends it had only the earlier periods, predicts the number of deals that period would win, and checks whether the real number fell in its 80% range. If it misses too often, the tool warns you that your results swing more than the history suggested.
What does it leave out?
Sales-cycle lag (leads that close in a later period), seasonality, lead quality by source, capacity limits and price changes. Use periods longer than your typical sales cycle, or treat the result as a rough guide. It also assumes the next period looks like the past ones.
Is my sales data uploaded anywhere?
No. The numbers are read and analysed in this browser tab. Nothing is sent to a server, there are no accounts or cookies, and the tool works offline once the page has loaded.