QUOTE FOLLOW-UP TIMING · RUNS IN YOUR BROWSER · NOTHING UPLOADED

Which open quotes are still worth chasing?

Paste or upload your past quotes: days from sending to the decision (or to today if still open), won / lost / open, and optionally the value. The tool shows when your wins actually arrive, your real win rate with open quotes counted correctly instead of as losses, the chance each open quote still has, and the wins and dollars still expected in your pipeline, with bootstrap ranges. It refuses when your history cannot answer.

Your quote list never leaves this browser tab. Statistical estimate from data you supply, not advice. It does not know whether following up works, only when there is anything left to catch.

Your past quotes

Outcome can be won/lost/open, or 1/0, accepted/declined, booked/passed. A blank outcome means open. For a decided quote, days is send date to decision; for an open one, send date to today. At least 25 quotes with 6 won and 6 lost, and wins on at least 4 different days. Mark dead quotes lost, or set the box above, or they flatter your win rate.

Upload or paste your quotes, then click Analyse.

How it is calculated

Model: every quote ends in a win, a loss, or is still open at its current age. The Aalen-Johansen estimator (the competing-risks version of Kaplan-Meier) gives the share won by each day while letting open quotes leave the count at their age instead of treating them as lost. Eventual win rate is that share at the latest day any quote was ever won, so it never extrapolates. For an open quote of age a, the chance it still wins is (won by the end − won by a) ÷ (share still undecided at a). Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of 300 seeded bootstrap resamples of whole quotes.

Not modelled: quote size, customer type, season, who the competitors are, whether or how often you followed up, and quotes that simply stopped answering unless you tell it how long you wait. The curve describes when decisions happened, not why. Unverified: checked against simulated quote histories with known win rates and timing in unit tests, not against a published dataset. Treat a result as a hypothesis for a small experiment with your follow-ups.

Common questions

When should I follow up on a quote?

When a quote that is still open has a real chance left. This tool reads your own past quotes (how many days each took to be won or lost, and which are still open) and shows how many of your eventual wins had already arrived by each day. Follow up hardest inside the window where most wins arrive, and expect little from a quote that has outlived almost every quote you have ever won.

What is a good quote win rate?

It depends on the trade and on how many quotes you send to people who were only price-checking, so a published average says little about you. The useful number is yours: the share of quotes you eventually win, counting quotes still open correctly rather than as losses. The tool also shows the plain won-over-decided rate beside it so you can see how much open quotes change the picture.

How many past quotes do I need?

At least 25 quotes, at least 6 won and 6 recorded as lost, and wins that arrived on at least 4 different days. Fewer than that cannot show a timing pattern, so the tool refuses rather than guessing. Pool every quote you can export, including old ones; more is better.

Why not just count open quotes as lost?

Because many of them are simply not decided yet, and counting them as lost makes your win rate look worse than it is, most of all for recent quotes. The tool treats an open quote as unknown until its age, then uses the quotes that were decided at the same or a later age to say how likely it is still to be won.

What should I do with quotes that never got an answer?

Decide how long you wait before you call a quote dead and tell the tool, using the box for treating open quotes older than a number of days as lost. Dead quotes left open inside the range of your normal decision times make your win rate look better than it is. Quotes older than any win you have ever had are shown at 0% either way.

Does following up actually win more quotes?

This tool cannot tell you that. It measures when quotes were decided, not whether you chased them, so it says when a follow-up has anything left to catch, not whether the follow-up works. To find out, follow up on a random half of your open quotes for a month and compare.

Is my quote list uploaded anywhere?

No. The file is read and analysed in this browser tab. Nothing is sent to a server, there are no accounts or cookies, and the tool never stores your customers' data. It works offline once the page has loaded.