Will your strategy pass the challenge, and is the fee worth paying?
Enter the firm's rules and your own win rate, reward:risk and risk per trade. The simulator plays the evaluation thousands of times and reports your pass probability, how failed attempts ended, the expected fees to pass, the value of the funded phase and the win rate you need to break even. It runs privately in your browser and uploads nothing.
Challenge rules and your strategy
The simulator assumes every trade risks the same share of the starting balance and that outcomes are independent, so streaks, slippage, fees and news-time rules are not modelled. It does not know any firm's exact rules. Treat it as a way to compare risk settings and rule sets, not as a forecast.
Simulation result
Pass probability
Attempts ended by max drawdown
Attempts ended by daily loss limit
Attempts that ran out of time
Average days to pass
Expected attempts to pass
Expected fees to pass
Average payouts after passing (funded phase)
Expected value per attempt (payouts minus fee)
Break-even win rate
Expectancy per trade
Pass rate by risk per trade, under your rules
Risk per trade
Pass probability
Avg days to pass
EV per attempt
Common questions
How do I estimate the chance of passing a prop firm challenge?
Model the challenge as a random walk with walls: your profit target is the upper wall, the maximum drawdown and the daily loss limit are lower walls, and the time limit is a clock. Each trade moves your balance up by your risk times your reward-to-risk ratio with probability equal to your win rate, and down by your risk otherwise. Run that thousands of times and count how many attempts hit the target first. This calculator does exactly that with your own numbers, and shows how the attempts that fail were ended.
What is the difference between a static and a trailing drawdown?
A static drawdown floor is fixed at the starting balance minus the allowed loss, so profit gives you a bigger cushion. A trailing drawdown floor follows your highest balance upward, so the cushion stays the same size and profit you have not locked in can disappear. Many firms stop the trailing floor once it reaches the starting balance. The two rules produce very different pass rates for the same strategy, which is why the calculator lets you choose and says which one it used.
How much does a prop firm challenge really cost if I need several attempts?
The expected cost to pass is the fee divided by your pass rate. At a 25% pass rate a $540 fee costs $2,160 on average before you are funded, and any single trader can spend far more or less than the average. This is a simulation of assumed inputs rather than a forecast, so treat it as a way to compare rule sets and risk settings, not as a promise.
What risk per trade gives the best chance of passing?
Neither the smallest nor the largest. Very small risk rarely breaches a limit but runs out the clock before reaching the target, and large risk reaches the target faster but breaches a loss limit more often. The table under the result sweeps risk per trade across your own rules so you can see where the pass rate peaks, then check that the peak still survives a losing streak.
Is passing the challenge worth the fee if my edge is small?
Only if expected payouts exceed the fee. The calculator estimates that by simulating a funded phase with the same strategy, paying you your profit split each time the account gains your payout target, and ending the account on a breach. If your expectancy per trade is zero or negative, no rule set fixes the odds and the fee is the cost of a ticket, which the calculator states plainly.
Does the calculator send my numbers anywhere?
No. The simulation runs in your browser, nothing is uploaded, and there is no account. A share link stores your inputs in the link itself, so send it only to people who may see them. It does not know any firm's exact rules, so enter the rules from the firm's own terms and check them yourself.