Fixed-Bid Overrun Forecaster — Will This Job Finish Inside the Price?

Is this fixed-price job going to finish inside the price?

For agencies, dev shops, contractors and consultants billing a fixed fee. Enter the price, your cost budget, how much is physically done and what you have spent. Get the projected final cost, the projected margin, the point at which the job stops paying, and how much extra revenue holds your margin.

Calculated in this browser tab. No account, no upload. Project numbers are confidential, so nothing leaves your machine.

1. This job

Contract price ($)

Cost budget to deliver ($)

Percent complete (physical, 0-100)

Actual cost to date ($)

Planned percent complete by now (optional)

Fill in the job or load the example.

2. Status history (optional)

Paste one row per status date to see whether cost efficiency is getting better or worse. Copy straight from Excel or Sheets. Uses the price and budget above.

Header: period, percent_complete, actual_cost, planned_percent (last column optional)

The rules, and what they leave out

Earned value = cost budget × percent complete. CPI = earned value ÷ actual cost. SPI = earned value ÷ (cost budget × planned percent).
One-off: final cost = actual cost + (budget − earned value). Efficiency continues: final cost = budget ÷ CPI. Cost and schedule slip: actual cost + (budget − earned value) ÷ (CPI × SPI).
Margin = price − final cost. Stops paying = the percent complete at which spend equals the price if CPI holds.
Extra revenue to hold the plan = forecast final cost − cost budget.
Not modelled: unbilled change orders, contract clauses, retainage and payment timing, taxes, overhead allocation, or whether your percent complete is right. Garbage progress in, garbage forecast out.

Common questions

What is an overrun forecast on a fixed-price project?

It estimates what the job will cost when it finishes, using what it has cost so far for the work completed. If you have spent $55,500 to finish 45% of a $62,000 cost budget, you have earned $27,900 of budget for $55,500 of cost, so each dollar is buying about 50 cents of progress, and the forecast scales the rest of the budget by that ratio.

What are CPI, SPI and EAC?

CPI (cost performance index) is earned value divided by actual cost: below 1.0 means you are spending more than the work completed was budgeted. SPI (schedule performance index) is earned value divided by planned value: below 1.0 means you are behind plan. EAC (estimate at completion) is the projected final cost.

Which of the three forecasts should I believe?

Treat the cost-efficiency forecast as the working number. The one-off forecast assumes the overrun so far will not repeat, which is the optimistic case, and the cost-and-schedule forecast is the pessimistic case. If the optimistic case already loses money, the job is in trouble.

How do I measure percent complete honestly?

Use physical progress, not money spent or hours burned: units installed, screens delivered, rooms painted, milestones accepted. Counting spend as progress makes every job look on budget. Weight milestones by their budgeted cost for the best result.

Is my project data uploaded?

No. The numbers are calculated in your browser tab and nothing is sent anywhere. There is no account.

Does this replace a project controls professional or my accountant?

No. It applies the standard earned-value formulas to the figures you enter. It does not know your contract terms, change-order rights or accounting treatment.