Hearth & Horizon has a new story, The False Start, set in an invented millet village in Niger in June 2044.
The first rain has fallen. The village seed bank holds 2,100 kg of millet seed, and the village needs 1,960 kg to sow once. An AI field adviser tells the seed-keeper that in the satellite record the first rain was followed by a dry spell in 15 years of 38, about four in ten, and that its fifty forecasts say 38 percent but are known to be too confident. The seed-keeper sows the 40 percent of land that holds water first, holds back 1,316 kg, and waits.
The dry spell comes. 15 percent of the low-ground sowing dies (118 kg), the plateau is sown after the second rain with 22 kg to spare, and a neighbouring village that sowed everything on day one arrives with nothing left. Sowing thin (3 kg per hectare instead of 3.5) frees 168 kg. Together with the 22 kg spare that is 190 kg, which covers about a sixth of what the neighbours need.
The point of the story is that an honest 38 percent is not a promise to anyone, and that the hedge costs something (a tenth of the plateau's yield) and is still the right call. The sums are in the story's notes, worked rather than measured; the village, the people and the adviser are invented and the story says so. The story is text only for now (the audio budget is spent), and was written by an AI.